The Amazonian Tropical Bites Research Initiative, a hope for resolving zoonotic neglected tropical diseases in the One Health era.

BACKGROUND: Neglected tropical diseases (NTDs) disproportionately affect populations living in resource-limited settings. In the Amazon basin, substantial numbers of NTDs are zoonotic, transmitted by vertebrate (dogs, bats, snakes) and invertebrate species (sand flies and triatomine insects). However, no dedicated consortia exist to find commonalities in the risk factors for or mitigations against bite-associated NTDs such as rabies, snake envenoming, Chagas disease and leishmaniasis in the region. The rapid expansion of COVID-19 has further reduced resources for NTDs, exacerbated health inequality and reiterated the need to raise awareness of NTDs related to bites. METHODS: The nine countries that make up the Amazon basin have been considered (Bolivia, Brazil, Colombia, Ecuador, French Guiana, Guyana, Peru, Surinam and Venezuela) in the formation of a new network. RESULTS: The Amazonian Tropical Bites Research Initiative (ATBRI) has been created, with the aim of creating transdisciplinary solutions to the problem of animal bites leading to disease in Amazonian communities. The ATBRI seeks to unify the currently disjointed approach to the control of bite-related neglected zoonoses across Latin America. CONCLUSIONS: The coordination of different sectors and inclusion of all stakeholders will advance this field and generate evidence for policy-making, promoting governance and linkage across a One Health arena.

Modeling between-farm transmission dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus: Characterizing the dominant transmission routes.

The role of transportation vehicles, pig movement between farms, proximity to infected premises, and feed deliveries has not been fully considered in the dissemination dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhea virus (PEDV). This has limited efforts for disease prevention, control and elimination restricting the development of risk-based resource allocation to the most relevant modes of PEDV dissemination. Here, we modeled nine pathways of between-farm transmission represented by a contact network of pig movements between sites, farm-to-farm proximity (local transmission), four distinct contact networks of transportation vehicles (trucks that transport pigs from farm-to-farm and farm-to-markets, as well as trucks transporting feed and staff), the volume of animal by-products in feed diets (e.g., fat and meat-and-bone-meal) to reproduce PEDV transmission dynamics. The model was calibrated in space and time with weekly PEDV outbreaks. We investigated the model performance to identify outbreak locations and the contribution of each route in the dissemination of PEDV. The model estimated that 42.7% of the infections in sow farms were related to vehicles transporting feed, 34.5% of infected nurseries were associated with vehicles transporting pigs between farms, and for both farm types, local transmission or pig movements were the next most relevant transmission routes. On the other hand, finishers were most often (31.4%) infected via local transmission, followed by the vehicles transporting feed and pigs between farms. Feed ingredients did not significantly improve model calibration metrics, sensitivity, and specificity; therefore, it was considered to have a negligible contribution in the dissemination of PEDV. The proposed modeling framework provides an evaluation of PEDV transmission dynamics, ranking the most important routes of PEDV dissemination and granting the swine industry valuable information to focus efforts and resources on the most important transmission routes.

When COVID-19 sits on people's laps: A systematic review of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in household dogs and cats

During the COVID-19 pandemic, questions were raised about whether SARS-CoV-2 can infect pets and the potential risks posed to and by their human owners. We performed a systematic review of studies on SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in naturally infected household dogs and cats conducted worldwide and published before January 2022. Data on SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence, as determined by either molecular or serological methods, and accompanying information, were summarized. Screening studies targeting the general dog or cat populations were differentiated from those targeting households with known COVID-19-positive people. Studies focusing on stray, sheltered or working animals were excluded. In total, 17 studies were included in this review. Fourteen studies investigated cats, 13 investigated dogs, and 10 investigated both. Five studies reported molecular prevalence, 16 reported seroprevalence, and four reported both. All but two studies started and ended in 2020. Studies were conducted in eight European countries (Italy, France, Spain, Croatia, Germany, the Netherlands, UK, Poland), three Asian countries (Iran, Japan, China) and the USA. Both molecular and serological prevalence in the general pet population were usually below 5%, but exceeded 10% when COVID-19 positive people were known to be present in the household. A meta-analysis provided pooled seroprevalence estimates in the general pet population: 2.75% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.56-4.79%) and 0.82% (95% CI: 0.26-2.54%) for cats and dogs, respectively. This review highlighted the need for a better understanding of the possible epizootic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the need for global standards for SARS-CoV-2 detection in pets.

When COVID-19 sits on people's laps: A systematic review of SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in household dogs and cats.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, questions were raised about whether SARS-CoV-2 can infect pets and the potential risks posed to and by their human owners. We performed a systematic review of studies on SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence in naturally infected household dogs and cats conducted worldwide and published before January 2022. Data on SARS-CoV-2 infection prevalence, as determined by either molecular or serological methods, and accompanying information, were summarized. Screening studies targeting the general dog or cat populations were differentiated from those targeting households with known COVID-19-positive people. Studies focusing on stray, sheltered or working animals were excluded. In total, 17 studies were included in this review. Fourteen studies investigated cats, 13 investigated dogs, and 10 investigated both. Five studies reported molecular prevalence, 16 reported seroprevalence, and four reported both. All but two studies started and ended in 2020. Studies were conducted in eight European countries (Italy, France, Spain, Croatia, Germany, the Netherlands, UK, Poland), three Asian countries (Iran, Japan, China) and the USA. Both molecular and serological prevalence in the general pet population were usually below 5%, but exceeded 10% when COVID-19 positive people were known to be present in the household. A meta-analysis provided pooled seroprevalence estimates in the general pet population: 2.75% (95% Confidence Interval [CI]: 1.56-4.79%) and 0.82% (95% CI: 0.26-2.54%) for cats and dogs, respectively. This review highlighted the need for a better understanding of the possible epizootic implications of the COVID-19 pandemic, as well as the need for global standards for SARS-CoV-2 detection in pets.

The between-farm transmission dynamics of porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus: A short-term forecast modelling comparison and the effectiveness of control strategies.

A limited understanding of the transmission dynamics of swine disease is a significant obstacle to prevent and control disease spread. Therefore, understanding between-farm transmission dynamics is crucial to developing disease forecasting systems to predict outbreaks that would allow the swine industry to tailor control strategies. Our objective was to forecast weekly porcine epidemic diarrhoea virus (PEDV) outbreaks by generating maps to identify current and future PEDV high-risk areas, and simulating the impact of control measures. Three epidemiological transmission models were developed and compared: a novel epidemiological modelling framework was developed specifically to model disease spread in swine populations, PigSpread, and two models built on previously developed ecosystems, SimInf (a stochastic disease spread simulations) and PoPS (Pest or Pathogen Spread). The models were calibrated on true weekly PEDV outbreaks from three spatially related swine production companies. Prediction accuracy across models was compared using the receiver operating characteristic area under the curve (AUC). Model outputs had a general agreement with observed outbreaks throughout the study period. PoPS had an AUC of 0.80, followed by PigSpread with 0.71, and SimInf had the lowest at 0.59. Our analysis estimates that the combined strategies of herd closure, controlled exposure of gilts to live viruses (feedback) and on-farm biosecurity reinforcement reduced the number of outbreaks. On average, 76% to 89% reduction was seen in sow farms, while in gilt development units (GDU) was between 33% to 61% when deployed to sow and GDU farms located in probabilistic high-risk areas. Our multi-model forecasting approach can be used to prioritize surveillance and intervention strategies for PEDV and other diseases potentially leading to more resilient and healthier pig production systems.

Modelling trachoma post-2020: opportunities for mitigating the impact of COVID-19 and accelerating progress towards elimination.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has disrupted planned annual antibiotic mass drug administration (MDA) activities that have formed the cornerstone of the largely successful global efforts to eliminate trachoma as a public health problem. METHODS: Using a mathematical model we investigate the impact of interruption to MDA in trachoma-endemic settings. We evaluate potential measures to mitigate this impact and consider alternative strategies for accelerating progress in those areas where the trachoma elimination targets may not be achievable otherwise. RESULTS: We demonstrate that for districts that were hyperendemic at baseline, or where the trachoma elimination thresholds have not already been achieved after three rounds of MDA, the interruption to planned MDA could lead to a delay to reaching elimination targets greater than the duration of interruption. We also show that an additional round of MDA in the year following MDA resumption could effectively mitigate this delay. For districts where the probability of elimination under annual MDA was already very low, we demonstrate that more intensive MDA schedules are needed to achieve agreed targets. CONCLUSION: Through appropriate use of additional MDA, the impact of COVID-19 in terms of delay to reaching trachoma elimination targets can be effectively mitigated. Additionally, more frequent MDA may accelerate progress towards 2030 goals.

Predicted Impact of COVID-19 on Neglected Tropical Disease Programs and the Opportunity for Innovation.

Due to the COVID-19 pandemic, many key neglected tropical disease (NTD) activities have been postponed. This hindrance comes at a time when the NTDs are progressing towards their ambitious goals for 2030. Mathematical modelling on several NTDs, namely gambiense sleeping sickness, lymphatic filariasis, onchocerciasis, schistosomiasis, soil-transmitted helminthiases (STH), trachoma, and visceral leishmaniasis, shows that the impact of this disruption will vary across the diseases. Programs face a risk of resurgence, which will be fastest in high-transmission areas. Furthermore, of the mass drug administration diseases, schistosomiasis, STH, and trachoma are likely to encounter faster resurgence. The case-finding diseases (gambiense sleeping sickness and visceral leishmaniasis) are likely to have fewer cases being detected but may face an increasing underlying rate of new infections. However, once programs are able to resume, there are ways to mitigate the impact and accelerate progress towards the 2030 goals.

Delays in lymphatic filariasis elimination programmes due to COVID-19, and possible mitigation strategies.

BACKGROUND: In view of the current global coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, mass drug administration interventions for neglected tropical diseases, including lymphatic filariasis (LF), have been halted. We used mathematical modelling to estimate the impact of delaying or cancelling treatment rounds and explore possible mitigation strategies. METHODS: We used three established LF transmission models to simulate infection trends in settings with annual treatment rounds and programme delays in 2020 of 6, 12, 18 or 24 months. We then evaluated the impact of various mitigation strategies upon resuming activities. RESULTS: The delay in achieving the elimination goals is on average similar to the number of years the treatment rounds are missed. Enhanced interventions implemented for as little as 1 y can allow catch-up on the progress lost and, if maintained throughout the programme, can lead to acceleration of up to 3 y. CONCLUSIONS: In general, a short delay in the programme does not cause a major delay in achieving the goals. Impact is strongest in high-endemicity areas. Mitigation strategies such as biannual treatment or increased coverage are key to minimizing the impact of the disruption once the programme resumes and lead to potential acceleration should these enhanced strategies be maintained.

Implications of the COVID-19 pandemic in eliminating trachoma as a public health problem.

BACKGROUND: Progress towards elimination of trachoma as a public health problem has been substantial, but the coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has disrupted community-based control efforts. METHODS: We use a susceptible-infected model to estimate the impact of delayed distribution of azithromycin treatment on the prevalence of active trachoma. RESULTS: We identify three distinct scenarios for geographic districts depending on whether the basic reproduction number and the treatment-associated reproduction number are above or below a value of 1. We find that when the basic reproduction number is <1, no significant delays in disease control will be caused. However, when the basic reproduction number is >1, significant delays can occur. In most districts, 1 y of COVID-related delay can be mitigated by a single extra round of mass drug administration. However, supercritical districts require a new paradigm of infection control because the current strategies will not eliminate disease. CONCLUSIONS: If the pandemic can motivate judicious, community-specific implementation of control strategies, global elimination of trachoma as a public health problem could be accelerated.